基于STIRPAT和GM(1,1)模型的湖南省农地投入碳排放增长机理及趋势预测

探索农地投入的碳排放特征、增长机理及趋势预测,并提出减排对策对农业发展向低碳绿色转型具有重要意义。研究采用回归分析法、STIRPAT和GM(1,1)模型解析湖南省农地投入碳排放增长机理并做出趋势预测。结果表明:2000~2014年湖南省农地投入碳排放量呈上升趋势,年均增长率为3.25%,各类碳源中化肥累计的碳排放量最大,其次是农药;此外翻耕、农药、农膜、柴油、灌溉、化肥累计碳排放年均增长量分别为0.68%、3.22%、7.47%、6.42%、2.57%、3.25%。农业人口、人均农业GDP、机械化水平、农业生产效率、农业产业结构显著影响农地碳排放,各因素每发生1%的变动会相应带来农地碳排放量约0.20%、0.95%、0.12%、0.98%和0.93%的变化。通过GM(1,1)模型对2016~2020年湖南省农地投入碳排放量进行预测,碳排放量呈持续上升趋势,2020年预计达到430.43万t。最后根据研究结果提出促进农地投入碳减排的政策建议。     

人工园林大面积种植区植被净初级生产力时空变化研究

云南西南地区自然资源丰富，近年来，随着社会经济的快速发展，橡胶、茶园和桉树等人工园林大规模种植主要占用了天然林和耕地，土地利用结构和空间布局发生了很大变化。为了探讨土地利用/覆被变化对植被净初级生产力（NPP）的影响，以人工园林大面积种植区西盟县为研究区，运用综合模型、CASA模型和MODIS产品（BIOME-BGC模型），对西盟县2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年各地类NPP的时间变化和空间分布特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）2000~2015年，CASA模型模拟的西盟县NPP呈先减少后增加的趋势，MODIS模型模拟的NPP值变化趋势与CASA模型一致，综合模型则呈现逐年增加的趋势；（2）西盟县NPP的空间分布形态从西至东均呈“低值-高值-低值-高值-低值”（“M”）变化，与西盟县水热资源的分布特征和土地利用/覆被变化有关，西盟县NPP空间变化主要集中于人工园林种植区；（3）3种模型中，CASA模型和MODIS产品（BIOME-BGC模型）比综合模型更适用于地形气候复杂多样的山区NPP的模拟计算，其中CASA模型空间精度更高。     

基于GIS与栅格数据的安徽省人居环境自然适宜性测评

科学度量人居环境自然背景的适宜性，有助于合理引导人口分布与流动，促进区域人口、资源环境协调发展。运用GIS技术，以250 m×250 m栅格为基本单元，选取气候、地形、水文、地被、自然灾害等因子，构建人居环境自然适宜性评价模型，定量测评安徽省人居环境自然适宜程度，剖析各类型区的适宜性和限制性。研究表明：安徽省人居环境指数介于33.64～74.58之间，人居环境自然适宜性总体较好，绝大部分地区适宜人类居住，适宜性在空间上大体呈现南高北低的态势，与现有人口分布格局相反。一般适宜区面积最广，占安徽省总面积的46.08%；比较适宜区次之，占31.29%；高度适宜区占22.54%；临界适宜区面积最小，仅占0.08%。安徽省近61.16%的人口分布在一般适宜区，高度适宜区与比较适宜区人口所占比例不足40%，临界适宜区人口极为稀少。地形起伏度和水文指数是造成全省人居环境自然适宜性分异的主要因子，测评结果较为客观地反映了安徽省人居环境的自然本底。全省人口生存与发展的空间较大，人口流动与集聚的适宜范围较广。 关键词： 人居环境；自然适宜性；栅格；GIS；安徽省     

神农架大九湖后生浮游动物群落结构和水质评价

大九湖是南水北调中线工程的重要水源涵养地之一。为了解实施生态修复工程后浮游动物群落结构特征及水质污染情况，于2014年11月（枯水期）、2015年5月（平水期）和9月（丰水期）进行了3次采样调查。研究表明:共检出后生浮游动物36种，其中桡足类2种、枝角类5种和轮虫29种，轮虫丰度在3次采样中均占总丰度的80%以上，仅有的几种枝角类和桡足类也是小型种类或以幼体为主。11月优势种是寡污-β中污型-螺形龟甲轮虫（Keratella cochlearis）和晶囊轮虫（Asplachna sp.）；5月优势种为寡污-β中污和β中污型-螺形龟甲轮虫、迈氏三肢轮虫（Filinia maior）、无棘螺形龟甲轮虫（Keratella cochlearis tecta）、广生多肢轮虫（Polyarthra vulgaris）和萼花臂尾轮虫（Brachionus calyciflorus）；9月优势种是β-中污型-裂足臂尾轮虫（Brachionus diversicornis）、迈氏三肢轮虫和剪形臂尾轮虫（Brachionus forficula）。冗余分析（RDA）表明高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)是影响后生浮游动物污染类型分布的最关键环境因子。 关键词： 大九湖；后生浮游动物；污染类型；高山湿地湖泊     

基于关联性及趋势性分析的AVHRR NDVI及#br# MODIS NDVI数据产品比较

针对AVHRR NDVI和MODIS NDVI数据集中不同数据产品间的差异和区域适应性问题，利用2003~2013年重叠时间段MODIS Terra/Aqua的NDVI Collection 5(C5)和Collection 6(C6)产品以及AVHRR NDVI中的GIMMS NDVI3g产品，选择汉江流域典型区域进行数据对比分析。通过关联指数IOAs(Index of Association)来评价各数据在季节波动上的一致性；采用Mann Kendall检验分析各数据的长期趋势差异。结果表明，在季节性变化上，同一卫星不同版本产品之间的关联性相对较高。在年际变化上，GIMMS产品相对MODIS 产品，仅能检出部分NDVI变化趋势。在地表覆被异质性相对较高地区，GIMMS产品的长期变化趋势检出率较低。MODIS Terra的NDVI C5产品受传感器退化影响，表现出相对较高的减少趋势。 关键词： GIMMS NDVI；MODIS NDVI；Mann Kendall检验；趋势分析     

Water management and aquatic ecosystem services of a tropical reservoir (Itaparica,São Francisco,Brazil)

Reservoirs have a wide variety of uses that have led to frequent conflicts over ecological conservation and contamination, especially as land management has intensified. Oligotrophication must be implemented in numerous tropical reservoirs that experience advanced eutrophication to maintain aquatic ecosystem functions. To quantify impacts on ecosystem functions and to develop an adaptive management policy, multiple studies have been conducted on the Itaparica Reservoir, São Francisco River, in the semi-arid north-eastern region of Brazil. Here, we add to that existing body of knowledge through investigating how nutrient accumulation is affected by water exchange between the main river flow and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Operational water-level fluctuations in the reservoir create large desiccated littoral areas that release high amounts of nutrients when they are rewetted. In particular, water-level variation promotes proliferation of Egeria densa, a noxious weed, thus elevating trophic levels of the Itaparica Reservoir and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Analysis with a P efficiency model determined 25 μg P L^?1 to be the critical concentration and further indicated that the critical load in both bodies of water have been exceeded. Moreover, intensive fish aquaculture using net cages has led to further overtaxing of the reservoir. We conclude that an effective ecological reservoir management policy must involve oligotrophication, harvesting of noxious water weeds for use as soil amendment in agriculture or biogas production, “blue” aquaculture, and limiting hydroelectric power production based on current water availability.     

连续流双室微生物燃料电池处理工业废水

以实际中药废水作为阳极基质、实际含镉废水作为阴极电解液,构建了连续流双室微生物燃料电池(MFC),考察了其产电性能及对两种废水的处理效果。78 d的运行数据表明:系统可实现最大输出电压417mV、最大体积功率密度11.8 W/m3,最大体积功率密度运行条件下的库伦效率为18.5%;在阳极进水有机物浓度变化较大的情况下,实现了阳极对中药废水中有机物的有效去除,平均COD去除率为81.5%;阴极对含镉废水中Cd2+的去除率为79.4%～84.8%。这表明MFC同步处理中药废水及重金属废水具有一定的可行性。     

Approach to the management of magnesium slag via the production of Portland cement clinker

Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - This work aims to develop another approach to the management of magnesium slag (MS) via the production of Portland cement clinker. Thus, 0, 10, 20,...     

以硝酸盐为主要氮源的反硝化除磷细菌驯化

以活性污泥为种泥,通过序批式反应器(Sequencing Batch Reactor,SBR),在厌氧-缺氧-好氧交替的条件下驯化培养以硝酸盐为主要氮源的反硝化除磷细菌(Denitrifying Phosphorus-Accumulating Organisms,DPAO)。在330 d的培养时间内监测磷酸盐、硝酸盐和亚硝酸盐等常规指标,并研究驯化不同阶段的一个周期内各指标的变化及进行相应的动力学分析。结果表明,随着驯化的进行,厌氧阶段释磷速率逐渐增加,释磷量也相应增大,出水磷质量浓度最终维持在0.8mg/L,去除率达到91.8%,硝氮全部去除。通过对16S r RNA测序结果的比对,得到聚磷菌占总菌的76.93%,反硝化除磷菌占聚磷菌的一半以上。而聚糖菌仅占5.13%,聚磷菌成为优势菌种。此外,在整个驯化过程中,水质和环境条件的变化使出水中磷质量浓度出现波动,而出水硝氮的变化不大。研究表明,以硝酸盐作为主要氮源培养反硝化除磷细菌的方式是可行的,并有利于聚磷菌对聚糖菌的竞争,使聚磷菌成为优势菌种。     

Unintentional non-traffic injury and fatal events: Threats to children in and around vehicles

Objective: There have been substantial reductions in motor vehicle crash–related child fatalities due to advances in legislation, public safety campaigns, and engineering. Less is known about non-traffic injuries and fatalities to children in and around motor vehicles. The objective of this study was to describe the frequency of various non-traffic incidents, injuries, and fatalities to children using a unique surveillance system and database.

Methods: Instances of non-traffic injuries and fatalities in the United States to children 0–14 years were tracked from January 1990 to December 2014 using a compilation of sources including media reports, individual accounts from families of affected children, medical examiner reports, police reports, child death review teams, coroner reports, medical professionals, legal professionals, and other various modes of publication.

Results: Over the 25-year period, there were at least 11,759 events resulting in 3,396 deaths. The median age of the affected child was 3.7 years. The incident types included 3,115 children unattended in hot vehicles resulting in 729 deaths, 2,251 backovers resulting in 1,232 deaths, 1,439 frontovers resulting in 692 deaths, 777 vehicles knocked into motion resulting in 227 deaths, 415 underage drivers resulting in 203 deaths, 172 power window incidents resulting in 61 deaths, 134 falls resulting in 54 deaths, 79 fires resulting in 41 deaths, and 3,377 other incidents resulting in 157 deaths.

Conclusions: Non-traffic injuries and fatalities present an important threat to the safety and lives of very young children. Future efforts should consider complementary surveillance mechanisms to systematically and comprehensively capture all non-traffic incidents. Continued education, engineering modifications, advocacy, and legislation can help continue to prevent these incidents and must be incorporated in overall child vehicle safety initiatives.